"Eternal Values" for Ultra-High-Net-Worth Investors

These days, only the lazy aren't talking about a crisis. Admittedly, there hasn't been a single year when analysts didn't predict some kind of financial apocalypse in the world. And yet, this year is truly special, believes Konstantin Tserazov, economist and independent expert in the field of AI technologies.

I can't recall anything quite like this happening before: analysts at the largest US bank, JP Morgan Chase, wrote in one of their recent reports: "We simply do not know how to model the final outcome of the conflict between the US and Iran." Consequently, the question of forecasting oil prices hangs in the air.

This is an alarming signal when something like this happens among analysts. Of course, they like to say that making oil forecasts is like reading coffee grounds. But fortune-telling is fortune-telling, and over many years in the investment sphere, you get used to the fact that ultra-high-net-worth investors persistently demand answers to all questions. Including — about the price of oil. That's what they actually pay for: to know the scenarios, their probability distribution, and to have an understanding of how those managing their capital with nine zeros will act.

Last year, the dollar price of gold surged at the fastest pace since 1979 — plus 66%. And this year, over the incomplete 9 months, it's only +1.2%. Meanwhile, Brent crude, which lost a record amount since 2020 in 2025 (-20%), has grown by 64% since the beginning of this year.

What does this indicate? That one must constantly run into gold, then out of it, then into oil futures, then out of them? I am convinced that such fuss is strategically wrong. Fundamental approaches are needed so that the most important values for an investor are preserved, and these are — security, health, and human communications.

Big Tech Is Doomed

Will there be a crash in the global stock and bond markets due to the collapse of the AI investment boom, or not? After all, right now, Wall Street's capitalization rests more than ever on faith in the securities of a few companies like Nvidia and Microsoft.

If these Big Tech companies lose investor trust, that's it: not only will the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite collapse — money will flee from many other country stock markets as well. The global bond market is already in a difficult state: interest rates do not correspond to the ability of states and corporations to service such expenses without harming operational activity.

A stock market crash will further undermine the bond market, and massive sell-offs will hit the propertied class in the West very hard: never before in human history have masses of people held such wealth in stocks and bonds. Among Americans alone, the share of their wealth in stocks for Q2 stood at 48.23% — compared to an 80-year average of 24.5%.

In the US — and not only there — more and more experts are saying: the question is not "if," but "when" Big Tech stocks in the US will go negative. Why is that? A lot has already been said and written about this, so I will say just one thing: no investor with large capital will entrust its management to an AI agent. It is impossible to trust someone who bears no responsibility, and neural networks bear no responsibility whatsoever to the user. So the idea of autonomous AI agents is quite raw.

Clunky Technology

One can talk all day about how convenient AI is, but it is still just another auxiliary technology, and a rather clunky one at that. Take the internal combustion engine: when using it, a car doesn't break down every second trip. But when AI is involved, the error rate in financial matters reaches 99%! Even on primitive questions (like, "analyze the dynamics of two or three assets and give an analysis of the factors driving them"), the error rate is 57%, and with a slightly more complex task — it's a complete failure.

And yet, 94% of company heads continue to invest organizational funds in neural networks, even if they don't see results right now. And only about 5% of companies feel a return on AI investments capable of justifying such expenses.

But despite the fact that 95% of companies implementing neural networks in their processes do not feel any positive impact on their financial results, the AI boom continues to be pumped up, at least in the information space.

There's No Money in AI

Meanwhile, from an investment standpoint, AI companies in the US are facing big difficulties: banks are not ready to invest in them as they used to, private credit funds have already "burned out" and upset investors who thought AI investments would yield a decent return. Yes, Musk's SpaceX IPO went successfully, but the securities have now rolled back 34% from their peak. OpenAI (the ChatGPT provider) has completely abandoned listing its shares on the exchange.

All this speaks to a crisis: there is less and less investment "fuel" for the AI rocket in the US, which means someone will have to give them money to save them from financial collapse.

The American state? The US Treasury has already made it clear that taxpayer money will not be spent on these purposes. So there is nowhere to get capital from, and the AI train is hurtling at full speed into a concrete wall.