Money for Development Exists, but the Walking Around It Continues

Small and Medium Business: Money for Development Exists, but the Walking Around It Continues Despite the Central Bank of Russia's apparent trend toward further lowering the key rate, the normalization of interest rates is not happening quickly. And given that the growth rate of consumer prices is slowing, in real terms monetary policy has actually tightened: the key rate is being reduced more slowly than the cooling of inflationary processes.

Expensive loans remain a reality, one that is particularly difficult for small and medium-sized businesses (SMEs). As a result, overdue loans have now reached nearly 800 billion rubles, significantly above the five-year average. Compared to a year ago, every fourth SME representative now finds themselves in a situation where either they themselves, or by the bank's decision, do not have access to credit resources.

I am confident that SMEs have real alternatives for raising capital beyond bank lending, including even beyond various government support measures aimed at this sector. By the way, this support is quite extensive: it includes not only subsidies and preferential rates, but also support for SMEs in working with government tenders, entering export markets, and more. However, this does not eliminate the need for SMEs to obtain capital for development elsewhere — especially since such opportunities exist.

SMEs Should Go to the Stock Exchange for Money. What Hinders Is Mostly Inertia There is money on the stock exchange. Companies can issue shares and bonds. There are investors, and they have plenty of funds. In Q2 2025, the net inflow of retail investor funds into the Russian stock market increased to 538.5 billion rubles, and from July 2024 to June 2025, an additional 1.82 trillion rubles were invested by individuals into all exchange instruments.

Looking at the period from September 2024 to August 2025, we see a boom in exchange-traded mutual funds: the net asset value of these instruments surpassed 1.5 trillion rubles, of which over 1.14 trillion rubles came from retail investors.

In total, retail investors have invested over 11 trillion rubles in exchange market instruments, and the rate of inflow has nearly doubled compared to last year.

All of this suggests the following: there is money on the exchange. And there is more and more of it, partly due to the gradual decline in the attractiveness of bank deposits as rates on them decrease.

Is business eagerly going to the exchange for money? In 2024, a 10-year record was set for the number of public placements. 15 companies went public for the first time, with 4 additional issues. However, only 102 billion rubles were raised — less than in 2023. The amount and number of issues are far below the market's real potential.

In 2025, there is a lull. Some say it's all due to the high key rate of the Central Bank. I disagree. More and more investor money is coming to the exchange! If you look at the growth rate of incoming capital to the exchange, it is higher than the growth in bank deposits. A real boom.

By my estimates, in 2024, twice as many companies could have successfully brought their securities to market. This year should have seen at least 25 placements raising at least 500 billion rubles. But that hasn't happened.

What's the problem? I think it's inertia. The prevailing view is: "the stock exchange is for large corporations." I believe companies need to seriously consider the exchange and hire professionals capable of organizing the entire IPO process "turnkey." Don't try to save on this: "we'll do some ourselves, the brokerage will do the rest." The capital raised on the exchange is still cheaper than bank loans.

The Digital Financial Assets Market as a Tool for Raising Development Capital for SMEs The digital financial assets (DFA) market also offers growing opportunities for raising capital. From January to August, businesses gained access to over 650 billion rubles from investors there.

The government and the Central Bank, at the request of President Vladimir Putin, are working to ease business access to the stock market. Discussions are also underway in the same vein regarding DFAs. In particular, changes are planned to the law on DFAs and the Tax Code to allow businesses to account for expenses on issuing such assets as debt instruments when calculating corporate income tax.

I also see great potential for the development of DFAs and the stock market through the digital ruble. I believe that without the launch of this third form of the national currency, we will not see significant growth in public placements or a multiple increase in DFA issuance. The digital ruble means lower costs, higher transparency, and consequently, a greater sense among investors and those raising capital that everything is proceeding as it should.

The digital ruble will also help expand the pool of investors if this new form of the Russian currency is actively introduced to the external circuit.

Raising Capital from Friendly Countries and from the West: Where Is Faster and More? The digitization of financial markets leads to significant positive changes. Fintech solutions help more effectively and strategically strengthen relationships between brokers and clients. And for the brokerage firm itself, from my own experience, the adoption of modern technologies — without waiting for "everyone else has already done it" — allows for achieving better portfolio results together with the client.

Therefore, I believe that we should now boldly explore global markets, entering them with innovative digital solutions. This will open up access to capital from SCO and BRICS+ countries for Russian SMEs, but not only there.

Western investors, in fact, have not lost interest in Russia. Moreover, capital is now flowing into Russian projects through friendly countries, particularly the EAEU, as well as through a number of Gulf states. I would call this, by analogy with parallel imports, parallel investing.

If digital financial communication channels are fully built out, the total funds that could come to Russia from Western financial markets may be no less than from partner countries in the EAEU, SCO, and BRICS+.

Blockchain and fintech are already transforming the global financial world beyond recognition. New, digital rules of the game apply there now: those who implement innovations faster and more efficiently attract more capital.

Western Venture Funds Dream of Investment Projects in Russia By my estimates, SMEs in Russia, especially in IT and fintech, are significantly undervalued (particularly in terms of AI developments), and Western venture funds, which would like to invest, understand this.

Russia is integrating into the global AI value chain. The demand for the ruble and the strengthening of its exchange rate come from this: large investment resources are coming from abroad, and they need Russian currency for their investments.

However, Western venture capital has not yet been able to fully realize its ambitions regarding investments in Russian companies. If regulatory and technical measures are taken to ensure that the digital circuit of external investment in Russia absorbs modern innovations to the maximum extent, SMEs will have another channel for raising capital.

It must be understood that venture funds globally, when it comes to investments in the financial sector, always invest in those startups that create things whose demand — or even just understanding — will only emerge tomorrow. In other words, this is about SMEs that are on the cutting edge of innovation. Obviously, such companies often cannot secure sufficient financing anywhere except from venture funds willing to take risks. Therefore, to stay ahead, SMEs and venture capital need to find each other.

In conclusion, I see the following trend: the share of bank lending in the financing structure of SMEs will inevitably decline. Raising funds through issuing shares, bonds, DFAs, and venture capital should play a larger role as soon as possible. This trend only needs to be supported so that SMEs in Russia always have enough funds for development. This task must be solved: only in this way, given the weight of SMEs in GDP (nearly 22%), can we guarantee the preservation of positive dynamics in the Russian economy.